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Written by Michael Robinet
The hottest debate within the global vehicle industry is the pace of adoption of vehicle electrification. It"s been raging for the past decade and continues to ignite bets, arguments and new forecasts. Don"t I know it! For an OEM to shift increasing levels of human and capital resources towards the development and production of battery, motors, power control and associated software technologies away from the existing combustion-engine infrastructure alters their future competitive stature. Foremost among the several "balls in the air" related to electric propulsion is compliance with rising global CO2 standards in most major markets. But over the next decade, greater electrification also will require increasing shifts and investment in infrastructure. And, importantly, it also is a key enabler for greater subsystem (steering, HVAC) efficiency, adoption of automated driving formats and shared mobility. Four key markets with rising vehicle emission regulations the U.S., China, the EU and Japan account for better than 75% of the global light vehicle market. With the onset of global vehicle and propulsion platforms over the past two decades, the benefits of economies of scale to competitiveness are obvious. Having one flexible platform to cover millions of units of production far exceeds any benefits from multiple regional efforts. Though the inflection of CAFE and greenhouse-gas standards in the U.S. may be of some question over the short term, global OEMs have to design to the highest common denominator no matter what any individual country does. As vehicle emission regulations become more stringent, engineers and product planners need to examine the compliance options and obstacles facing the industry. Within the propulsion world the "low-hanging fruit" direct injection, turbocharging, variable valve control and cylinder deactivation has, for the most part, been picked. It"s on the road. OEMs and suppliers are now focusing on what had been "higher-hanging" (and costlier) technologies: variable-compression-ratio systems, lean-burn/HCCI combustion strategies and even new approaches such as opposed-piston two-stroke engines that are multi-fuel capable. Add in increased transmission ratios or CVTs to deliver the power and greater focus on aerodynamics and friction reduction and it"s clear that the industry is pulling out all the stops. Meanwhile, electrification has only driven changes to the industry"s periphery. But this will soon change, as shown in a recent forecast by IHS Markit (see chart). The industry is bracing for significant shifts in resource allocation and therefore the competitive landscape for OEMs and suppliers. The ICE will increasingly receive less design and investment the capital pie is only so large. The number of new engine plants dedicated to ICEs already is in decline. While advanced ICEs will remain vital for hybrids and specific vehicle segments for decades to come, the OEMs are already marking their territory in advance. Suppliers involved in propulsion as well as the ancillary systems will face tremendous, rapid change in technologies, timelines and system sourcing. Electrification will carry with it greater need to control all systems to optimize efficiency. OEMs will be requesting increased mechatronics, sensor integration and consolidation of ECUs. They"ll also be looking for new materials and manufacturing processes, mostly on a global scale. Is your organization prepared for what"s ahead?
Date written: 18-Jan-2017 03:21 EST
More of this article on the SAE International Website
ID: 6458
The hottest debate within the global vehicle industry is the pace of adoption of vehicle electrification. It"s been raging for the past decade and continues to ignite bets, arguments and new forecasts. Don"t I know it! For an OEM to shift increasing levels of human and capital resources towards the development and production of battery, motors, power control and associated software technologies away from the existing combustion-engine infrastructure alters their future competitive stature. Foremost among the several "balls in the air" related to electric propulsion is compliance with rising global CO2 standards in most major markets. But over the next decade, greater electrification also will require increasing shifts and investment in infrastructure. And, importantly, it also is a key enabler for greater subsystem (steering, HVAC) efficiency, adoption of automated driving formats and shared mobility. Four key markets with rising vehicle emission regulations the U.S., China, the EU and Japan account for better than 75% of the global light vehicle market. With the onset of global vehicle and propulsion platforms over the past two decades, the benefits of economies of scale to competitiveness are obvious. Having one flexible platform to cover millions of units of production far exceeds any benefits from multiple regional efforts. Though the inflection of CAFE and greenhouse-gas standards in the U.S. may be of some question over the short term, global OEMs have to design to the highest common denominator no matter what any individual country does. As vehicle emission regulations become more stringent, engineers and product planners need to examine the compliance options and obstacles facing the industry. Within the propulsion world the "low-hanging fruit" direct injection, turbocharging, variable valve control and cylinder deactivation has, for the most part, been picked. It"s on the road. OEMs and suppliers are now focusing on what had been "higher-hanging" (and costlier) technologies: variable-compression-ratio systems, lean-burn/HCCI combustion strategies and even new approaches such as opposed-piston two-stroke engines that are multi-fuel capable. Add in increased transmission ratios or CVTs to deliver the power and greater focus on aerodynamics and friction reduction and it"s clear that the industry is pulling out all the stops. Meanwhile, electrification has only driven changes to the industry"s periphery. But this will soon change, as shown in a recent forecast by IHS Markit (see chart). The industry is bracing for significant shifts in resource allocation and therefore the competitive landscape for OEMs and suppliers. The ICE will increasingly receive less design and investment the capital pie is only so large. The number of new engine plants dedicated to ICEs already is in decline. While advanced ICEs will remain vital for hybrids and specific vehicle segments for decades to come, the OEMs are already marking their territory in advance. Suppliers involved in propulsion as well as the ancillary systems will face tremendous, rapid change in technologies, timelines and system sourcing. Electrification will carry with it greater need to control all systems to optimize efficiency. OEMs will be requesting increased mechatronics, sensor integration and consolidation of ECUs. They"ll also be looking for new materials and manufacturing processes, mostly on a global scale. Is your organization prepared for what"s ahead?
Date written: 18-Jan-2017 03:21 EST
More of this article on the SAE International Website
ID: 6458
