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Written by Paul Weissler
As automakers addadvanced driver-assist systems to conventional passenger vehicles, they are developing one path to thefully autonomous vehicle but not the only one. So, the inevitable question: When will fully self-driving cars arriveand what will they be like? Google, with years of experience in this area, has predicted as early as 2020. Work underway was described by theproject"s CEO, John Krafcik, who spoke at the recent J.D. Power/NADA/NY Auto Show forum. Many peopleenvision getting into their fully-autonomous cars, sitting back and perhapstaking a nap, reading the latest news ona tablet or even eating breakfast duringa drive to work. But there"s an application that is likely to come sooner, and it promisesto create a whole new market: a self-driving car for the handicapped,visually impaired, and elderly who no longer can drive safely. That was the vision that excited Peter Welch, President of NADA (National Automobile Dealers Association), who also spoke atthe forum. Short range mobility Krafcik describedreadiness of self-driving cars as a "process, not a point intime." So at first, as Welchenvisions, the cars might provide mobility for people who can be satisfied witha shorter range. As the processimproves, the range and top speed should increase and the potential marketshould grow correspondingly. However, Krafcik said Google"s25 mph (40 km/h) speed-limited vehicle is easier for the development process because kinetic energy at35 mph (56 kph) is twice that at 25 mph. For many people who are no longer able to drive, the mobility afforded by a self-driving car would justify its ownership. Atthis time Google precisely maps routes for its test cars, so a similar practicecould give owners a list of trips to take, with new ones added as needed andpossible. TheGoogle-developed cars are EVs without steering wheels orpedals. Because they"re limited to 25 mph, they fit the description of smart"neighborhood cars." They could serve relativelylarge areas with adult communities, many of which are located close to shopping and medical facilities. Owners in such areas also could be satisfiedwith slow-but-safe personal transportation suited primarily for generallygood-to-fair weather. Google also has afleet of Lexus RX450h"s, modified for theself-driving system, and with steering wheel and pedals removed. Predictive software The Googlesoftware is written to be predictive, that is to know what everything movablearound the car will do. According to Krafcik, it generally will predict a cyclist will ride by and a pedestrian will cross the street. So the car will slow to a safe speed and moveaway from the cyclist, then yield to the pedestrian. But road situations can becomplex. On Halloween, for example,costumed children in the street were a new experience, he explained, and Google rightlydecided children can be more unpredictable than adults, particularly when incostume. The ability todeal with emergency vehicles on the road was addressed early by Google. It has a "library" of varioussirens (a fire truck siren has a long wail, an ambulance a series of shortshrills) and as soon as the car "hears" the siren it will stop to letit through an intersection. If thevehicle is coming from behind, it will slow down and pull over. Google"s official position isthat "we will be ready for some people and road environments first, and asour technology improves, it will be available to more people." Krafcik quipped that Google is "all about data and measurements," noting that company engineers have developed hundreds of tests, in addition to logging over 1.5 M miles in real-world road testing since 2009. The company eachday performs 3 M miles of simulation. The Googleproject began by using a flat section of CA Route 101, withvolunteering employees as passenger/drivers. Self-contained software A noteworthyaspect of the Google project, Krafciktold the forum, is that presently all the software is self-contained. "Our autonomous cars use on-boardprocessing power, nothing from the cloud," he said. "We are not relying on communication via V2V (vehicle to vehicle) or V2X (vehicle toinfrastructure) because either can go down." Such cars seem toinvolve more complexity than afull-range autonomous car with a capable driver available for specialsituations, such as sudden changes in weather, highway blockages and high roadspeeds. However, the opposite may bemore likely to be true, because of the limits on its use. The two-passenger Google self-driving carshave been rolling along streets in Mountain View, CA, near Google HQ, in Austin, TX, and, to increase experience with rain, in Kirkland, WA. In addition, Krafcik said, Google recently began testing in snow, but he provided no details. The cars" dome-shapedsensors have what was described as the equivalent of a windscreen wiper,but in general the weather has more effect on cameras thanlasers, as the latter can "see through" the raindrops. At this stage, if the rain is severe, visibility is poor and /orroad conditions are slippery, the cars slow downand may even pull to the side of the road until conditions improve. Prediction was wrong No cars aretotally accident free, even if that"s the dream of self-driving car proponents,and certainly not with driver-operated vehicles also on the road. In a widely-reported accident last February in Mountain View, theGoogle car pulled into the right lane to prepare for a right turn onred. It detected sandbags near a stormdrain blocking its path. So it stopped, let several cars pass by, thenangled out to pull around. In doing so,it "predicted" a slow approaching bus would yield, but it didn"t anda minor collision resulted. Google is notworking solo on its project. A long list of suppliers are assisting, including Bosch, Continental, FRIMO, LG Electronics, Prefix, RCO, and Roush Industries. Legal issuesmust be sorted out, Krafcik maintained. California requires a licensed driver behind the wheel. NHTSA"s interpretation has been that with what the agency considers to be the highest level of autonomy(Level 4, or "L4"), robotic controls can count as a driver, with financialresponsibility assumed by the owner or if an accident is caused by a defect, by themanufacturer. There are NGOs(non-governmental organizations) such as California-based Consumer Watchdog,that have objected to this. So theautonomous car will need a very high level of "proof." However, the potentially large market for a continuouslyimproving lower-speed self-driving car, for a broadly-defined"neighborhood" area, is recognized, and so seems to be likely the first to come.
Date written: 27-Mar-2016 10:37 EDT
More of this article on the SAE International Website
ID: 2720
As automakers addadvanced driver-assist systems to conventional passenger vehicles, they are developing one path to thefully autonomous vehicle but not the only one. So, the inevitable question: When will fully self-driving cars arriveand what will they be like? Google, with years of experience in this area, has predicted as early as 2020. Work underway was described by theproject"s CEO, John Krafcik, who spoke at the recent J.D. Power/NADA/NY Auto Show forum. Many peopleenvision getting into their fully-autonomous cars, sitting back and perhapstaking a nap, reading the latest news ona tablet or even eating breakfast duringa drive to work. But there"s an application that is likely to come sooner, and it promisesto create a whole new market: a self-driving car for the handicapped,visually impaired, and elderly who no longer can drive safely. That was the vision that excited Peter Welch, President of NADA (National Automobile Dealers Association), who also spoke atthe forum. Short range mobility Krafcik describedreadiness of self-driving cars as a "process, not a point intime." So at first, as Welchenvisions, the cars might provide mobility for people who can be satisfied witha shorter range. As the processimproves, the range and top speed should increase and the potential marketshould grow correspondingly. However, Krafcik said Google"s25 mph (40 km/h) speed-limited vehicle is easier for the development process because kinetic energy at35 mph (56 kph) is twice that at 25 mph. For many people who are no longer able to drive, the mobility afforded by a self-driving car would justify its ownership. Atthis time Google precisely maps routes for its test cars, so a similar practicecould give owners a list of trips to take, with new ones added as needed andpossible. TheGoogle-developed cars are EVs without steering wheels orpedals. Because they"re limited to 25 mph, they fit the description of smart"neighborhood cars." They could serve relativelylarge areas with adult communities, many of which are located close to shopping and medical facilities. Owners in such areas also could be satisfiedwith slow-but-safe personal transportation suited primarily for generallygood-to-fair weather. Google also has afleet of Lexus RX450h"s, modified for theself-driving system, and with steering wheel and pedals removed. Predictive software The Googlesoftware is written to be predictive, that is to know what everything movablearound the car will do. According to Krafcik, it generally will predict a cyclist will ride by and a pedestrian will cross the street. So the car will slow to a safe speed and moveaway from the cyclist, then yield to the pedestrian. But road situations can becomplex. On Halloween, for example,costumed children in the street were a new experience, he explained, and Google rightlydecided children can be more unpredictable than adults, particularly when incostume. The ability todeal with emergency vehicles on the road was addressed early by Google. It has a "library" of varioussirens (a fire truck siren has a long wail, an ambulance a series of shortshrills) and as soon as the car "hears" the siren it will stop to letit through an intersection. If thevehicle is coming from behind, it will slow down and pull over. Google"s official position isthat "we will be ready for some people and road environments first, and asour technology improves, it will be available to more people." Krafcik quipped that Google is "all about data and measurements," noting that company engineers have developed hundreds of tests, in addition to logging over 1.5 M miles in real-world road testing since 2009. The company eachday performs 3 M miles of simulation. The Googleproject began by using a flat section of CA Route 101, withvolunteering employees as passenger/drivers. Self-contained software A noteworthyaspect of the Google project, Krafciktold the forum, is that presently all the software is self-contained. "Our autonomous cars use on-boardprocessing power, nothing from the cloud," he said. "We are not relying on communication via V2V (vehicle to vehicle) or V2X (vehicle toinfrastructure) because either can go down." Such cars seem toinvolve more complexity than afull-range autonomous car with a capable driver available for specialsituations, such as sudden changes in weather, highway blockages and high roadspeeds. However, the opposite may bemore likely to be true, because of the limits on its use. The two-passenger Google self-driving carshave been rolling along streets in Mountain View, CA, near Google HQ, in Austin, TX, and, to increase experience with rain, in Kirkland, WA. In addition, Krafcik said, Google recently began testing in snow, but he provided no details. The cars" dome-shapedsensors have what was described as the equivalent of a windscreen wiper,but in general the weather has more effect on cameras thanlasers, as the latter can "see through" the raindrops. At this stage, if the rain is severe, visibility is poor and /orroad conditions are slippery, the cars slow downand may even pull to the side of the road until conditions improve. Prediction was wrong No cars aretotally accident free, even if that"s the dream of self-driving car proponents,and certainly not with driver-operated vehicles also on the road. In a widely-reported accident last February in Mountain View, theGoogle car pulled into the right lane to prepare for a right turn onred. It detected sandbags near a stormdrain blocking its path. So it stopped, let several cars pass by, thenangled out to pull around. In doing so,it "predicted" a slow approaching bus would yield, but it didn"t anda minor collision resulted. Google is notworking solo on its project. A long list of suppliers are assisting, including Bosch, Continental, FRIMO, LG Electronics, Prefix, RCO, and Roush Industries. Legal issuesmust be sorted out, Krafcik maintained. California requires a licensed driver behind the wheel. NHTSA"s interpretation has been that with what the agency considers to be the highest level of autonomy(Level 4, or "L4"), robotic controls can count as a driver, with financialresponsibility assumed by the owner or if an accident is caused by a defect, by themanufacturer. There are NGOs(non-governmental organizations) such as California-based Consumer Watchdog,that have objected to this. So theautonomous car will need a very high level of "proof." However, the potentially large market for a continuouslyimproving lower-speed self-driving car, for a broadly-defined"neighborhood" area, is recognized, and so seems to be likely the first to come.
Date written: 27-Mar-2016 10:37 EDT
More of this article on the SAE International Website
ID: 2720
